Each year, the federal department of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) releases a new Immigration Levels Plan which it uses to guide its operations.
In 2021, IRCC exceeded its target by welcoming more than 405,000 immigrants. In 2022, this target will rise to 431,645 new permanent residents (PRs). In 2023, Canada will aim to welcome an additional 447,055 immigrants and in 2024 another 451,000. The following table summarizes Canada's immigration targets between 2022-2024 by immigration class:
Immigration Class
|
2022
|
2023
|
2024
|
Economic
|
241,850
|
253,000
|
267,750
|
Family
|
105,000
|
109,500
|
113,000
|
Refugee
|
76,545
|
74,055
|
62,500
|
Humanitarian
|
8,250
|
10,500
|
7,750
|
Total
|
431,645
|
447,055
|
451,000
|
Canada welcomes high levels of immigration to keep its economy strong.
Canada has one of the world's oldest populations and also one of the world's lowest birth rates. This creates economic and fiscal pressures. Canada has a low rate of natural population growth which results in low rates of labour force and economic growth. Low economic growth makes it difficult for Canada to raise the taxes it needs to support social spending on services such as education, health care, and other important areas that provide high living standards in the country.
As a result, Canada has been increasing its immigration levels since the late 1980s to increase its rate of population, labour force, and economic growth. Canada now depends on immigration for the majority of its population and labour force growth and a larger share of its economic growth.
Consider that Canada will have 9 million baby boomers reach the retirement age of 65 by the year 2030. This means that Canada will have fewer workers at a time when its social spending on health care will rise. To alleviate this challenge, Canada has been proactive by gradually raising its immigration targets for over 30 years now.
As shown in the chart below, Canada has regularly welcomed over 200,000 immigrants per year since 1988. In recent years, it has decided to increase its levels to over 400,000 per year. Canada's immigration rate now stands at around 1.1 per cent. In other words, Canada welcomes three times more immigrants on a per capita basis than then the United States of America.
Based on its demographic realities and its immigration trends, it appears likely that Canada will continue to gradually increase its immigration levels over the foreseeable future. Immigration will remain critical to supporting a healthy economy and fiscal situation in the country.
Moreover, a strong argument can be made that immigration's importance has increased due to the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 has weakened the Canadian economy in the short run and increased government spending on social services. In addition, Canada's birth rate fell to its lowest level ever of 1.47 children per woman in 2019.
Given the low birth rate prior to the pandemic, and the chance the pandemic will reduce the birth rate even further due to economic uncertainty, Canada will become even more dependent on immigration for its population growth in the coming years. If Canada's birth rate remains low, then immigration will comprise an even larger share of labour force growth in the decades to come. Finally, Canada will need to strengthen its tax base through immigration to support government spending following COVID-19.
How COVID-19 is Impacting Canada Immigration
Canada has continued to operate its immigration system throughout the coronavirus pandemic. Since the start of the pandemic, the Canadian government has communicated its desire to minimize disruptions to the immigration system so it can continue to welcome skilled workers, family class immigrants, refugees, temporary foreign workers, international students, and visitors.
When Canada initially imposed COVID-19 travel restrictions, it announced that some new permanent residents would be allowed to enter the country.
COVID-19 reduced the flow of new permanent resident arrivals into Canada in 2020 however new immigration landings recovered in 2021 as IRCC increased its processing capacity.